diff --git a/.github/workflows/vlt-compatibility.yml b/.github/workflows/vlt-compatibility.yml
index 466404c65..fcf9aa5ec 100644
--- a/.github/workflows/vlt-compatibility.yml
+++ b/.github/workflows/vlt-compatibility.yml
@@ -43,6 +43,8 @@ on:
       - 'scripts/vlt-historical-integrity.json'
       - 'scripts/gen-vlt-collation-golden.mjs'
       - 'scripts/ci-vlt-proof-suites.py'
+      - 'scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py'
+      - 'scripts/tests/test_vlt_compat_gate.py'
       - '.github/workflows/ci.yml'
       - 'scripts/tests/test_ci_vlt_rows.py'
   push:
@@ -84,6 +86,8 @@ on:
       - 'scripts/vlt-historical-integrity.json'
       - 'scripts/gen-vlt-collation-golden.mjs'
       - 'scripts/ci-vlt-proof-suites.py'
+      - 'scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py'
+      - 'scripts/tests/test_vlt_compat_gate.py'
       - '.github/workflows/ci.yml'
       - 'scripts/tests/test_ci_vlt_rows.py'
   schedule:
@@ -136,8 +140,41 @@ jobs:
       - name: Every era, suite and OS is covered
         run: python3 -B -m unittest scripts/tests/test_ci_vlt_rows.py -v
 
-  build:
+  # Both filters list ci.yml for its vlt `e2e` rows, which install-proof
+  # leaves out. A PR or push whose only matching change is ci.yml, with
+  # those rows untouched, would rerun the matrix exactly as on the base:
+  # matrix-coverage above still checks it, the rest is skipped.
+  changes:
     if: github.event.pull_request.draft != true
+    runs-on: ubuntu-latest
+    timeout-minutes: 5
+    outputs:
+      matrix: ${{ steps.gate.outputs.matrix }}
+    steps:
+      - uses: actions/checkout@de0fac2e4500dabe0009e67214ff5f5447ce83dd # v6.0.2
+        with:
+          persist-credentials: false
+          # A PR's merge commit has the base it was merged onto as parent 1.
+          fetch-depth: 2
+      - id: gate
+        env:
+          EVENT_NAME: ${{ github.event_name }}
+          PUSH_BEFORE: ${{ github.event.before }}
+        run: |
+          set -euo pipefail
+          case "$EVENT_NAME" in
+            pull_request) base=HEAD^1 ;;
+            push) base="$PUSH_BEFORE" ;;
+            *) base='' ;;
+          esac
+          if [ -n "$base" ] && ! git rev-parse --verify --quiet "$base^{commit}" >/dev/null; then
+            git fetch --quiet --depth 1 origin "$base" || true
+          fi
+          python3 -B scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py --event "$EVENT_NAME" --base "$base" >> "$GITHUB_OUTPUT"
+
+  build:
+    needs: changes
+    if: needs.changes.outputs.matrix == 'true'
     strategy:
       fail-fast: false
       matrix:
@@ -373,7 +410,8 @@ jobs:
     steps: *install-proof-steps
 
   plan:
-    if: github.event.pull_request.draft != true
+    needs: changes
+    if: needs.changes.outputs.matrix == 'true'
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
     timeout-minutes: 5
     outputs:
@@ -468,8 +506,8 @@ jobs:
           retention-days: 14
 
   lock-diff:
-    needs: native
-    if: ${{ !cancelled() }}
+    needs: [changes, native]
+    if: ${{ !cancelled() && needs.changes.outputs.matrix == 'true' }}
     runs-on: ubuntu-latest
     timeout-minutes: 10
     steps:
diff --git a/scripts/tests/test_vlt_compat_gate.py b/scripts/tests/test_vlt_compat_gate.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..34a9ba0ce
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/tests/test_vlt_compat_gate.py
@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+"""scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py: vlt-compatibility skips its matrix only when
+ci.yml is the one matching change and its vlt cells are untouched."""
+
+import contextlib
+import importlib.util
+import io
+import subprocess
+import tempfile
+import unittest
+from pathlib import Path
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).parents[2]
+CI = (ROOT / ".github" / "workflows" / "ci.yml").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+COMPAT = (ROOT / ".github" / "workflows" / "vlt-compatibility.yml").read_text(encoding="utf-8")
+
+spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("gate", ROOT / "scripts" / "vlt-compat-gate.py")
+gate = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+spec.loader.exec_module(gate)
+
+PR = gate.event_paths(COMPAT, "pull_request")
+PUSH = gate.event_paths(COMPAT, "push")
+CI_PATH = ".github/workflows/ci.yml"
+
+
+def drop_a_vlt_row(text):
+    lines = text.splitlines(keepends=True)
+    for i, line in enumerate(lines):
+        if "vlt:" in line and "--include-ignored vlt_pinned_matrix" in line:
+            return "".join(lines[:i] + lines[i + 1:])
+    raise AssertionError("no vlt row in ci.yml")
+
+
+class Filters(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_both_events_list_ci_yml_and_the_gate(self):
+        for paths in (PR, PUSH):
+            self.assertIn(CI_PATH, paths)
+            self.assertIn("scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py", paths)
+        self.assertIn("crates/socket-patch-core/src/vendor/**", PUSH)
+        self.assertNotIn("crates/socket-patch-core/src/vendor/**", PR)
+
+    def test_globs(self):
+        star = gate.glob_re("crates/*/src/**/*vlt*")
+        self.assertTrue(star.match("crates/socket-patch-core/src/vendor/vlt.rs"))
+        self.assertTrue(star.match("crates/socket-patch-cli/src/vlt_preflight.rs"))
+        self.assertFalse(star.match("crates/a/b/src/vlt.rs"))
+        self.assertTrue(gate.glob_re("crates/x/**").match("crates/x/a/b.rs"))
+        self.assertFalse(gate.glob_re("crates/x/*.rs").match("crates/x/a/b.rs"))
+
+
+class Decision(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_ci_yml_alone_with_the_same_cells_skips(self):
+        edited = CI + "\n# an unrelated edit\n"
+        for event, paths in (("pull_request", PR), ("push", PUSH)):
+            self.assertFalse(gate.needs_matrix(event, [CI_PATH, "README.md"], paths, CI, edited))
+
+    def test_a_changed_vlt_row_runs(self):
+        self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix("pull_request", [CI_PATH], PR, CI, drop_a_vlt_row(CI)))
+
+    def test_another_matching_file_runs(self):
+        changed = [CI_PATH, "scripts/check-vlt-legs.py"]
+        self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix("pull_request", changed, PR, CI, CI))
+        changed = [CI_PATH, "crates/socket-patch-core/src/vendor/npm.rs"]
+        self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix("push", changed, PUSH, CI, CI))
+
+    def test_other_events_and_missing_inputs_run(self):
+        for event in ("schedule", "workflow_dispatch"):
+            self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix(event, [CI_PATH], PR, CI, CI))
+        self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix("pull_request", [CI_PATH], [], CI, CI))
+        self.assertTrue(gate.needs_matrix("pull_request", [CI_PATH], PR, None, CI))
+
+    def test_no_base_runs(self):
+        out = io.StringIO()
+        with contextlib.redirect_stdout(out), contextlib.redirect_stderr(io.StringIO()):
+            gate.main(["--event", "pull_request", "--base", "0" * 40])
+        self.assertEqual(out.getvalue().split(), ["matrix=true"])
+
+
+class ChangedPaths(unittest.TestCase):
+    """main() on real commits: odd file names and renames still match."""
+
+    def commit_pair(self, before, after):
+        tmp = tempfile.TemporaryDirectory()
+        self.addCleanup(tmp.cleanup)
+        repo = Path(tmp.name)
+
+        def run(*args):
+            return subprocess.run(["git", *args], cwd=repo, check=True, capture_output=True,
+                                  text=True).stdout.strip()
+
+        def write(files):
+            for name, body in files.items():
+                path = repo / name
+                path.parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
+                path.write_text(body, encoding="utf-8")
+
+        run("init", "-q")
+        run("config", "user.email", "t@example.com")
+        run("config", "user.name", "t")
+        write(before)
+        run("add", "-A")
+        run("commit", "-qm", "base")
+        base = run("rev-parse", "HEAD")
+        for name in [n for n in before if n not in after]:
+            run("rm", "-q", name)
+        write(after)
+        run("add", "-A")
+        run("commit", "-qm", "head")
+        return repo, base
+
+    def decide(self, before, after):
+        repo, base = self.commit_pair(before, after)
+        out = io.StringIO()
+        old_repo = gate.REPO
+        gate.REPO = repo
+        try:
+            with contextlib.redirect_stdout(out), contextlib.redirect_stderr(io.StringIO()):
+                gate.main(["--event", "pull_request", "--base", base])
+        finally:
+            gate.REPO = old_repo
+        return out.getvalue().split()
+
+    def base_tree(self):
+        return {CI_PATH: CI, "scripts/check-vlt-legs.py": "x\n"}
+
+    def test_inert_ci_yml_edit_skips(self):
+        after = dict(self.base_tree(), **{CI_PATH: CI + "\n# unrelated\n"})
+        self.assertEqual(self.decide(self.base_tree(), after), ["matrix=false"])
+
+    def test_odd_names_and_renames_still_run(self):
+        for name in ("crates/socket-patch-cli/tests/a vlt b.rs",
+                     "crates/socket-patch-cli/tests/\u00e9vlt.rs"):
+            after = dict(self.base_tree(), **{CI_PATH: CI + "\n# unrelated\n", name: "x\n"})
+            self.assertEqual(self.decide(self.base_tree(), after), ["matrix=true"], name)
+        moved = {CI_PATH: CI + "\n# unrelated\n", "scripts/elsewhere.py": "x\n"}
+        self.assertEqual(self.decide(self.base_tree(), moved), ["matrix=true"])
+
+
+class Workflow(unittest.TestCase):
+    def test_heavy_jobs_wait_on_the_gate(self):
+        for job in ("build", "plan"):
+            block = COMPAT.split(f"\n  {job}:\n", 1)[1].split("\n  ", 1)[0]
+            self.assertIn("needs: changes", block, job)
+        self.assertIn("needs.changes.outputs.matrix == 'true'", COMPAT.split("\n  lock-diff:\n", 1)[1][:200])
+        self.assertIn("scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py", COMPAT.split("\n  changes:\n", 1)[1])
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    unittest.main()
diff --git a/scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py b/scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py
new file mode 100644
index 000000000..8d1b31535
--- /dev/null
+++ b/scripts/vlt-compat-gate.py
@@ -0,0 +1,116 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Print whether a vlt-compatibility run needs its matrix (`matrix=true`).
+
+The workflow's pull_request and push filters list ci.yml because
+install-proof leaves out the cells ci.yml's `e2e` rows already run
+(scripts/ci-vlt-proof-suites.py). Most ci.yml edits don't touch those rows,
+and then the matrix would run exactly as it did on the base. So the answer
+is `matrix=false` only when ci.yml is the one changed file the event's
+filter matches and its vlt cells are the same on both sides. Anything
+unexpected (a base that isn't there, a filter that doesn't parse) answers
+`matrix=true`.
+"""
+
+import argparse
+import importlib.util
+import re
+import subprocess
+import sys
+from pathlib import Path
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+WORKFLOW = ROOT / ".github" / "workflows" / "vlt-compatibility.yml"
+REPO = ROOT  # where git runs; the tests point it at a scratch repository
+CI_PATH = ".github/workflows/ci.yml"
+
+
+def event_paths(text, event):
+    """The `paths:` list of `on.<event>` in the workflow text."""
+    paths, in_on, in_event, in_paths = [], False, False, False
+    for line in text.splitlines():
+        if not line.strip() or line.lstrip().startswith("#"):
+            continue
+        depth = len(line) - len(line.lstrip(" "))
+        if depth == 0:
+            in_on = line.rstrip() == "on:"
+            in_event = in_paths = False
+        elif in_on and depth == 2:
+            in_event = line.strip() == f"{event}:"
+            in_paths = False
+        elif in_event and depth == 4:
+            in_paths = line.strip() == "paths:"
+        elif in_paths and line.strip().startswith("- "):
+            paths.append(line.strip()[2:].strip().strip("'\""))
+    return paths
+
+
+def glob_re(pattern):
+    """GitHub's filter globs: `**` crosses `/`, `*` and `?` don't."""
+    out, i = "", 0
+    while i < len(pattern):
+        if pattern.startswith("**/", i):
+            out, i = out + "(?:.*/)?", i + 3
+        elif pattern.startswith("**", i):
+            out, i = out + ".*", i + 2
+        elif pattern[i] == "*":
+            out, i = out + "[^/]*", i + 1
+        elif pattern[i] == "?":
+            out, i = out + "[^/]", i + 1
+        else:
+            out, i = out + re.escape(pattern[i]), i + 1
+    return re.compile(out + r"\Z")
+
+
+def ci_cells(text):
+    path = ROOT / "scripts" / "ci-vlt-proof-suites.py"
+    spec = importlib.util.spec_from_file_location("ci_vlt_proof_suites", path)
+    module = importlib.util.module_from_spec(spec)
+    spec.loader.exec_module(module)
+    return module.ci_cells(text)
+
+
+def git(*args):
+    return subprocess.run(["git", *args], cwd=REPO, capture_output=True, text=True, check=True).stdout
+
+
+def needs_matrix(event, changed, filters, base_ci, head_ci):
+    """The decision on already-fetched inputs (see the module docstring)."""
+    if event not in ("pull_request", "push") or not filters:
+        return True
+    rules = [glob_re(p) for p in filters]
+    relevant = [f for f in changed if any(r.match(f) for r in rules)]
+    if relevant != [CI_PATH]:
+        return True
+    return base_ci is None or ci_cells(base_ci) != ci_cells(head_ci)
+
+
+def main(argv=None):
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__.splitlines()[0])
+    ap.add_argument("--event", required=True)
+    ap.add_argument("--base", default="")
+    ap.add_argument("--head", default="HEAD")
+    args = ap.parse_args(argv)
+    matrix = True
+    if args.event in ("pull_request", "push") and args.base:
+        try:
+            # NUL-separated paths are never quoted or split on spaces; with
+            # --no-renames a moved file lists both its old and new path.
+            out = git("diff", "-z", "--name-only", "--no-renames", args.base, args.head)
+            changed = [p for p in out.split("\0") if p]
+            filters = event_paths(WORKFLOW.read_text(encoding="utf-8"), args.event)
+            base_ci = git("show", f"{args.base}:{CI_PATH}")
+            head_ci = git("show", f"{args.head}:{CI_PATH}")
+            matrix = needs_matrix(args.event, changed, filters, base_ci, head_ci)
+        except Exception as e:  # any doubt runs the matrix
+            detail = getattr(e, "stderr", "") or e
+            print(f"::warning::vlt-compat-gate: {str(detail).strip()}; running the matrix", file=sys.stderr)
+            matrix = True
+    if not matrix:
+        print("::notice::only ci.yml changed and its vlt cells did not; skipping the vlt matrix",
+              file=sys.stderr)
+    print(f"matrix={'true' if matrix else 'false'}")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())